Deriving the Formula
Provided that an investor has 1 USD and that principal will be same regardless of the country to invest. Herein, assume he invests in US and Japan.
When to investing 1USD at the yield of Rf for d period in US, the principal is,
1USD X (1 + Rf X d/360) ----------------- 1)
After converting IUSD to Japanese Yen and investing it at the yield of rv, to change it at Forward rate, the principal is,
1USD X S(1 + rv X d/360)/F ------------- 2)
S : Spot rate of USD/JPY
F : Forward rate of USD/JPY
Formula 1) & 2) should be same, therefore,
1USD X (1 + Rf X d/360) = 1USD X S(1 + rv X d/360)/F
Accordingly, F = S X (1 + rv X d/360) / (1 + Rf X d/360) ---------------3)
Get Swap Rate (SR) by subtracting S from the both side of formula 3),
Swap Rate(SR) = F - S = S X {(rv - Rf) X d/360} / (1 + Rf X d/360) --------------- 4)
As a denominator (1 + Rf X d/360) of formula 4) is nearly close to 1, the formula can be simplified as below.
Swap Rate(SR) = F - S = S X {(rv - Rf) X d/360} ----------------- 5)
If Rf > rv in the formula 4), base currency is the higher interest rate currency. As such, the base currency becomes Forward discounted currency.
If Rf < rv, base currency is the lower interest rate currency. As such, the base currency becomes Forward premium currency.
Example
USD 3 months (90 days) Term Deposit Interest Rate : 3.5%
JPY 3 months (90 days) Term Deposit Interest Rate : 0.1%
Spot Rate USD/JPY = 120.10
Use the formula 4) to get 3 months Forward Rate (F),
SR = F - S = 120.1 X {(0.001 - 0.035) X 90/360} / (1 + 0.035 X 90/360) = -1.02
Therefore, 90 days Forward Rate (F) is S + SR = 120.10 + (-1.02) = 119.08
cf) If to use the simplified formula 5),
SR = F - S = 120.1 X {0.001 - 0.035) X 90/360} = -1.03
F = S + SR = 120.10 + (-1.03) = 119.07
Therefore, there will be no big difference in the result when using the formal formula and that of the case when using the simplified formula.